With the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Republicans are now scrambling to confirm President Trump’s nominee, Amy Coney Barrett, before the election.The prize of a 6-3 conservative majority on the court awaits Republicans, but this move isn’t without risks. Use the timeline feature to view the map as it looked at the end of each day. ^ Excludes AZ & GA seats with special elections in 2020. Chance of Democrats or Republicans winning a Senate majority over time. Every day, our model explores 10,000 paths each Senate race could take. For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by all four of these projections are shown in the darkest shade. The current 2020 Senate forecast from Politico. The current 2020 Senate forecast from The Cook Political Report. A consensus outlook for the 2020 Senate elections based on the current ratings of forecasters at Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, and Inside Elections, as well as the probabilistic FiveThirtyEight model. The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party. This far from November, it may be of limited predictive value. Last updated: Mon Oct 12, 2020. 2020 Senate Elections: Consensus Forecast. © 2020 Electoral Ventures LLC. These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. By FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast. Chances of a Republican win in swing states. How accurate are our predictions early on? * The arrows on the counter above the map designate the controlling party. A consensus outlook for the 2020 Senate elections based on the current ratings of forecasters at Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, and Inside Elections, as well as the probabilistic FiveThirtyEight model. Our statistical model based on polls and search trends forecasts Democrats having a. We analyzed every Senate race to determine who we think will win in 2020. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast. By Clare Malone. See our election dashboard and find your local races. Our model depends primarily on polls to predict vote outcomes. ... How the Senate forecast has changed. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast. 2020 Senate Elections: Consensus Forecast, Cook Political Report 2020 Senate Ratings, Sabato's Crystal Ball Updates Election Outlook, Cook Political Moves South Carolina Senate Race to Toss-up. These states were carried by less than 5 points in the 2016 presidential race. Updated every two hours, this is an interactive Senate map derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast. 18 days left until Election Day. Below is the probability of a Republican victory in Senate races within 85% probability. 2020 Senate Elections: Consensus Forecast As of October 8, 2020 A consensus outlook for the 2020 Senate elections based on the current ratings of forecasters at Sabato's Crystal Ball , The Cook Political Report , and Inside Elections , as well as the probabilistic FiveThirtyEight model. 2020 Election Coverage. Copy Code. Chances of a Republican win in the closest Senate races. Past polling error informs our modelling of the uncertainty of our predictions. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.October 13: Alaska and Texas move from Likely to Leans Republican; Georgia (special) from Leans Republican to Toss-up. Share or Embed your Map: Select 'Share Map' button above. Senate simulations. States where the margin is <5% are shown as toss-up. Use the timeline feature to see how the map has evolved over time. Our statistical model based on polls and search trends forecasts Democrats having a 58 % probability of winning the Senate majority. Most importantly, polling is a snapshot in time. Distribution of Senate race control are generated based on 10k simulations. it is predictive of past election outcomes, Email us to report any problem you notice in our forecast. Return here to share it. The current 2020 Senate race ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. A consensus outlook for the 2020 Senate elections based on the current ratings of forecasters at Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, and Inside Elections, as well as the probabilistic FiveThirtyEight model. Use the timeline feature to see how the map has evolved over time. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.October 13: Alaska and Texas move from Likely to Leans Republican. Display excludes Arizona and Georgia seats with special elections in 2020. Sabato's Crystal Ball Updates Election Outlook, Cook Political Moves South Carolina Senate Race to Toss-up. The bars below display the probability of each of the two major parties winning a specific number of seats. Safe is 15% or higher. All Rights Reserved. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.October 13: Alaska and Texas move from Likely to Leans Republican. Updated daily. Cook subscribers can read the analysis. We model the probabilities using the beta, weibull, and logistic distributions. The current 2020 Senate forecast from Inside Elections. Place the map on your website with this code. Last updated: Thu Oct 15, 2020. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+). The consensus rating is used where there are no polls as well as for the Georgia special election. Use their map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.October 8: Georgia (special) and Kansas move from Likely to Leans Republican; Mississippi from Safe to Likely Republican. Leaning is <10%, likely <15%. © 2020 Electoral Ventures LLC. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate election forecast. For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by all four of these projections are shown in the darkest shade. Updated daily. Forecasting each Senate seat. Customize your map by changing one or more states. Read the Analysis. The current 2020 Senate forecast from Rachel Bitecofer of the Niskanen … All Rights Reserved. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. A Contested 2020 Election Would Be Way Worse Than Bush v. Gore. 21 days left until Election Day. These simulations allow one party to do unusually well or poorly nationwide, and also provide appropriate uncertainty in each specific contest.

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