The range on future population projections is wide. That would be an obviously distortionary move. My contemporaries lived in the inner suburbs as students in the late 60’s and early 70’s but the minute they got a bit of money, they moved either back to Mission Bay, or to the new suburbs in the west which were opening up with the new motorway. These population estimates and projections come from the latest revision of the UN World Urbanization Prospects. Nothing at all. This is mainly due to the amazing efforts to educate women. I advocate a national population strategy to share growth more evenly throughout NZ. Centred around Symonds Street and Britomart in this case. Yes, 60% of Auckland’s growth is from natural increase. If current trends continue the Isthmus and South will continue to run parallel in growth (most likely). Canterbury achieved 1.5 times post-earthquake. I don’t unfortunately, I’ll have to keep a look out. It only distracts from discussion of policies that might work, such as rezoning proposals, state house construction, speeding consenting, investment in rapid transit or new transport infrastructure, etc. Just to be clear, I don’t think that migrant labourers should be paid less than minimum wage in NZ. Between 1996 and 2015, Auckland added over 20,000 new residents a year – the fastest-ever increase. Given that you guys keep saying “Instructions” or “directions” It might help if you actually labelled it as such IN THE POST, or at least HIGHLIGHTED it. How much more expensive does it need to get!!!!!???? Now, it’s worth putting some caveats on this. Tamaki had to be kept together so it was put into Auckland. The Auckland Region (population density) as of early 2010 Auckland is New Zealand's most populous city. Also you could add the current rebound of the Aussie economy is also relevant to our net migration levels… push and pull, eh? Just not possible. So all a policy can ever do is focus on the inflow component of people who are not from here. As part of that, I noticed that there’s actually pretty good data for ‘central’ Auckland, i.e. They couldn’t. Do you still have it, BBC? Again, higher local prices will tend to offset the gains from higher local wages. Auckland region. If it’s the reality, as espoused by the older generation, that open, freer living with large sections is the optimum mode of living, then there will be a natural demographic shift out of Auckland by that part of society. This will offset the natural flow pressure from immigration. However, the mid-point of the range, which is reasonably reliable over multi-decade periods, would see the growth trends of the last 20 years continue. For failing to follow a rule in the post, which was so unobtrusive that I failed to find it 4 times while actively seeking it. Once again this is something that would have to be led by successive central governments over decades, so improving transport, increasing density etc within Auckland has to be the way forward in the near future. That’s the problem with laying out PT in a star topology. See NZ.Stat for ethnic population tables at 30 June 1996, 2001, 2006, 2013, and 2018. Oops. Helped by tax breaks such as export incentives, they were able to employ and house large numbers of employees in comfortable and cheap accommodation and pay wages that were way above the average to keep them there. It also means rethinking the way that we invest in and manage our transport system. “For the record, commenters complaining about population growth or the origin of migrants without engaging with these facts or providing references for their own views will be deleted. That means changing the way we regulate and build the housing market – the Unitary Plan has made a useful contribution. This is about finding practical solutions for projected outcomes. I don’t see that happening until the planning rules transform the urban environment with density and transit options that nudge the late adopters and laggards into considering options: – don’t like and move – decide it’s not that bad and stay – decide it’s what they really always wanted and advocate vociferously for more. (These figures don’t line up perfectly, but they’re still broadly comparable.). Before that, we had a system of boroughs and counties which had survived quite intact since the 19th century. Almost like you wanted people to miss it. Other factors, such as the availability of construction labour or funding for infrastructure, could still pose road-blocks. Circa 1900, they reckon. They don’t control those things but there needs to be planning well in advance (since it takes so long to make things happen in this country) so that we can move people around the city and the country. Supporters will get premium ad-free experience. It’s a fascinating document. Yes, it is a little known fact that global fertility rates are at about replacement level, even with sub-Saharan Africa still having fertility rates of around 4-5. At the high end, it would add another million people. It’s even more interesting if you separate the widening projects from the entirely new motorways. I would also like to see the second graph extended to include 2013 data. If you are in a business that only works through exploiting poor people then let them fail. That does rather smack of a bias, conscious or otherwise. These policies are popular among those who already have their place in the city secured: older and wealthier home owners. I’m not sure what your agenda is here, but misrepresenting this voting record and their actions is pretty poor form. Yes, well in that sense the Nick Smith line, wait, it’ll correct, is sort of true. For example moving the port would cost a lot but developing the former port would re-coup a lot of that expenditure. Incidentally, Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin all had quite similar populations at the end of the 19th century. Historical and projected population in Auckland, New Zealand By age group, 1981–2013 estimated, 2018–2043 medium projections. If a farmer or a manufacturer can’t get someone to work for them at $15 per hour then as a society we should be saying “put up your wages you miserable prick”! We love being able to keep you in the loop - it means we know theres a community of like-minded people who are keen on making Auckland better on bikes. But how much waiting can people reasonable do? Question: What is the population of Western Auckland? That does not apply anymore. Net migration is very volatile – high inflows in one year can be balanced out by outflows in the next. A lonely Planet I read recently from the early 90’s described Auckland as a city with a dead heart – thankfully this is slowly being turned around. Otherwise the burden on just a few connections will be impossible. We should have had this level of growth 3-4 years ago and now be building apartments at least 3x as fast. The Auckland urban area extends a little further past Papakura, to Drury. Auckland Transport or NZTA are NOT responsible for immigration or “one child policies”. Your email address will not be published. And fringe locations built around the car are becoming increasingly expensive to connect in to the rest of the city, due to the need to expand road capacity across pinch-points. But when you’ve actually got to build stuff to meet demand – homes, roads, pipes, busways, etc – the raw numbers matter a lot. Your email address will not be published. Either you build a very big parking lot around your shops, or nobody is able to reach your shops, and there’s this thing called “Albany” on the other end of SH18 which is going to make you quite miserable most of the time. Inflow is also largely exogenous, as like outflow, is a function of Aucklands *relative* attractiveness compared to wherever these people are coming from or going to. If you're already a Supporter, login here: New figures show Auckland's housing shortage is still getting worse but should start to decline in the next one to two years, Falls in migration & rising building consents mean Auckland's housing shortage could be on the verge of receding, but there's still a big backlog of pent up demand to overcome, Migration accounted for two thirds of Auckland's population growth in the year to June, Migration now accounts for two thirds of Auckland's population growth and is the main reason for the region's housing shortage, Paul Glass argues New Zealand should target a desired rate of population so we can plan for the necessary infrastructure and housing required rather than trying to play catch up, Tony Alexander says the Reserve Bank under-estimated Auckland's population growth and demand for new housing in its latest Financial Stability Report, Net migration surges to yet another record high of 67,391 in February year as long term arrivals keep rising, departures stabilise, The expected increase in new home construction won't be enough to dent Auckland's housing shortage if migration remains at current levels, "parliament selects the government on a winner-takes-all basis rather than a proportional one. ", Auckland's housing shortage has grown by 34,000 in the last five years, Auckland's new housing supply now almost keeping up with population growth, Auckland's population grew by nearly 43k in June year, housing shortfall grows to 25k, Govt's handling of migration & housing, reckless or incompetent? plus much of the costs of CMJ are sunk, so that’s why you wouldn’t pull it down (which would incur additional costs).

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